金融发展促进了经济增长吗？--基于半参数模型的分析

摘要

本文使用1960-2010年全球66个国家的面板数据，应用半参数局部线性模型对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了再检验，并对不同收入水平的国家进行分组检验。为了克服金融发展指标选择的敏感性，本文选择流动性、商业银行重要性以及私人信贷三个指标衡量金融发展。实证结果表明：无论是在全样本还是分组样本中，金融发展与经济增长之间的关系都表现出复杂的非线性关系，金融发展并不总是促进经济发展。因此本文提出应该进行货币存量结构改革、加强企业道德风险监管以及政府职能转换等相关建议。%Using the panel data of 66 countries worldwide,we re-examined the relationship between fi-nancial development and economic growth,and tested the results by putting those counties in different groups according to their income levels. In order to overcome the sensitivity of choosing financial de-velopment indicators,we selected the liquidity,the importance of commercial banks and personal debt as indicators to measure financial development. The empirical results show that:whether in the whole sample or in sample groups,a complex non-liner relationship exists between financial development and economic growth,which suggests that financial development does not always increase economic growth. On this basis,we offer the following three suggestions:to reform the structure of monetary stock;to enhance the supervision of companies ’morality;and to transform the function of govern-ment.