耕地资源约束下中国农产品进口策略分析--基于虚拟耕地视角的研究

摘要

This paper explores the import strategy of agricultural products for solving China’s arable land shortages from the perspective of virtual farmland, and uses Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis Model to simulate the strategy effects.The results show, if implementing fully liberalization of soybean imports, China will save 1.76 million hectares of soybean fields, of which 1.23 million hectares con-verted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficiency rate increased by 1.35%; if along with implemen-ting limited liberalization of cotton imports, China will save 2.43 million hectares of cotton and soy-bean fields, of which 1.42 million hectares can be converted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficien-cy rate improved by 1.85%;if further along with implementing limited liberalization of maize imports, China will ensure grain ration security and improve the self-sufficiency of rice and wheat by 2%and 2. 2%.According to above results, this paper presents policy suggestions.%基于虚拟耕地的视角，本文提出了一种以解决耕地资源短缺为目标的农产品进口策略，并运用中国农业政策分析模型对策略效果进行情景模拟分析。研究表明：实施全面开放的油料大豆进口策略，比基准期节约出176万公顷豆田，其中123万公顷转化为粮田，使谷物自给率提高1．35％；实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花进口策略，比基准期节约出243万公顷棉花、大豆的种植田，其中142万公顷转化为粮田，使谷物自给率提高1．85％；实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花与玉米进口策略，能够优先保证口粮的绝对安全，使稻谷、小麦的自给率分别提高2％和2．2％。最后，提出了相应的政策建议。