严寒地区村镇灾害影响普遍性关系分析

摘要

为给村镇的防灾减灾资源分配提供建议,研究面向与村镇居民生产生活息息相关的灾害表现形式,基于村镇灾害数据的调查收集与统计,以各灾害类型受灾户数比表征各灾害类型影响普遍性特征,在确定严寒地区村镇的主要灾害类型基础上,以政府、村民两个防灾减灾主体在抵御不同类型灾害时潜在的投入关系为前提,同时以冬季灾害为例,利用多元线性回归的方法建构严寒地区村镇灾害影响普遍性关系模型,以此为基础提出了相应的严寒地区村镇防灾减灾方法与策略.%The study aims at providing recommendations for resource allocation of disaster prevention and mitigation in rural areas.Focusing on disaster performance forms and based on disaster data collection and statistics closely linked with rural residents'production and living,firstly the main types of disaster were determined by representing the proportion of households affected by disaster.Then,taking the potential investment relations of government and villagers,two main bodies in responding to disasters,as a premise,and winter disaster as an example,a relational model of disaster influence universality by multiple linear regression was constructed.Last,the corresponding methods and strategies about disaster prevention and mitigation for rural areas in cold regions were put forwards.