在金融危机背景下，准确地把握中国农村金融系统的波动性，是农村金融改革的前提。本文通过对中国农村金融系统构成要素及其相互影响关系的过滤，得到了农村金融系统加权有向图，并利用冲量过程原理对该系统进行了波动分析，结果证明了该系统目前是不稳定系统。同时，以农业贷款为调整对象，分析此调整对整个系统造成的波动影响，包括冲击力度、冲击方向和彼此之间的联动关系。计算结果表明系统中农业产值受到最大的正向影响，农村金融制度与政策受到最大的负向影响，为此，本文结合实际情况又深入地分析了各影响值大小及方向产生的原因。%Under financial crisis, it＇s the premise of rural financial reform to accurately grasp the volatility of China＇s rural financial system. By filtering the components of China＇s rural financial system and their interrela- tions, this paper gains a weighted directed graph of rural financial system, builds a fluctuation model on the basis of impulse process and proves that this system is unstable. Meanwhile, taking agricultural loan as adjustment ob- ject, this paper analyzes the fluctuation influence of this adjustment on the whole system, including impact strength, impact direction and interrelations among the components. The result shows that agricultural output re- ceives the greatest positive effects, while the rural financial system and policy receive the greatest negative effects. Therefore, this paper deeply analyzes the causes of different impact strength and directions by combining with the actual situation.
展开▼
