人民币有效汇率的计算和实证分析

摘要

The paper introduce the calculate methods of REER, including two sides trade proportion, three and more sides trade proportion, alterable trade proportion. It analysis the fluctuation of REER from 1995, conclude that REER is influenced by the value change between US dollar and other currency, has high correlativity with the foreign direct investment. Through the regression test with export, REER, the global trade amount, GDP, it has the result： export has reverse correlativity with REER, has same correlativity with the global trade amount, has low correlativity with the export tax return.%本文介绍了有效汇率的计算方法，重点介绍了样本货币权重计算的四种方法，即：双边贸易权重、多边贸易权重、可变贸易权重、考虑替代弹性差异的可变贸易权重。对我国REER自1995年以来的波动进行分析，认为我国REER的变动很大程度上受到美元兑其他主要货币价值变动的影响，人民币有效汇率指数和外国直接投资流入具有很高的相关关系；国内物价水平与人民币实际有效汇率指数存在着负相关关系。对我国1995—2010年的出口与REER、世界贸易总量、国内GDP、出口退税率的进行一阶差分的回归检验，结果是出口增速与REER变动率明显负相关，与国际贸易总量增长率正相关，与GDP增速和出口退税率的变化相关度很小。