Based on the current research and relevant experience,the evaluation model of yield losses caused by sea level rise and storm surge is established.We take the Qearl River Delta in Guangdong Qrovince as study are-a,based on the DEMand land-use data,and obtained the local crop planting structure,crop rotation pattern,crop yields and loss rate of different crops under different flood height,to estimate and analyze spatial distribution char-acteristics of agriculture disaster and production losses in the Qearl River Delta area affected by sea level rise and storm surge in 201 0.The results show that under low estimation the total area of arable land flooded by storm surge accounted for 3.61 % of total region and increased to 5.47% at high estimation.Guangzhou,Jiangmen,Zhuhai, Shanwei,Huizhou,Foshan are cities where the arable land inundated is more serious.Moreover,with the storm surge disaster increasing,the arable land of which the submerged height is over 1 50cm in many cities increased sig-nificantly.From the perspective of the agricultural production losses,the yield loss of vegetables is generally high, followed by rice and peanut was less affected by the disaster.The loss of vegetables is severest in Guangzhou and that of rice is severest in Jiangmen.In this paper,the influence of disaster to agriculture caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Qearl River Delta is described more detailed,in order to provide the scientific quantitative and location basis for crop planting pattern and production and disaster prevention and relief.%在借鉴相关经验的基础上建立风暴潮增水农业产量损失评估模型，选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域，以该地区的 DEM、土地利用等数据为基础，通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料，并以2010年为例，估算并分析了不同风暴潮增水情景下珠三角地区耕地受灾空间分布特征及农业产量损失情况。结果表明，低估计情况下研究区耕地风暴潮淹没总面积占耕地总面积3.61％，高估计时该比重增加到5.47％，其中广州、江门、珠海、汕尾、惠州、佛山等地市受风暴潮影响耕地淹没情况较为严重；且随风暴潮灾害的加剧，多地市淹没高度在最大值150 cm 以上的耕地淹没面积增加显著。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看，蔬菜的损失产量普遍较高，其次是稻谷，花生受灾害影响较小。其中蔬菜灾损最严重的为广州，稻谷损失最严重的为江门。本文较为细致地刻画了珠三角地区海平面上升及风暴潮增水灾害对农业的影响，以期为珠江三角洲地区作物种植布局、生产以及防灾减灾提供定量和定位的科学依据。
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