边坡非线性位移的Verhulst-ARMA组合预测模型研究

摘要

针对ARM A模型中时序变量自身变化的复杂性及其预测的不确定性，利用Verhulst提取非平稳时间序列中的趋势项，再对剩下部分采用平稳时间序列建模，建立Verhulst‐ARMA组合预测模型。运用文中组合模型对三峡某边坡滑移的实测数据进行分析，验证Verhulst‐ARMA组合模型在边坡非线性位移预测中的可靠性和适用性。%For the complexity of timing variables’ self‐variation and uncertainty of prediction in the ARMA model ,Verhulst is used to extract the trend item of non‐stationary time series ,and the remaining parts are modeled in stationary time series .A Verhulst‐ARMA combination forecasting model is established .This model is used to analyze the measured data of slope sliding on the three gorges and the reliability and applicability of the model in slope nonlinear displacement prediction are confirmed .