改进的灰色GM（1，1）预测模型

摘要

为进一步提高灰色GM（1，1）模型的模拟精度和预测精度，分析传统GM（1，1）模型存在的缺陷，提出一种改进的GM（1，1）预测模型。对已有GM（1，1）模型的背景值构造公式进一步优化，基于最小二乘法原理改进模型初始值参数的选取策略。对比实验结果表明，改进的模型适用于低增长序列和高增长序列，拓宽了传统GM（1，1）预测模型的应用范围，提高了模拟精度和预测精度。%To further enhance the simulation and prediction accuracy of the GM(1 ,1 )model,the defects of GM(1 ,1 )model were analyzed,and an improved GM(1 ,1 )prediction model was proposed.The existing background value formula of GM(1 , 1 )model was further optimized,and based on the least square method,the parameter selection strategy of initial values of the model was improved.The experimental results show that the proposed model is suitable for low growth and high growth se-quences at the same time,which not only broadens the scope of application of the classic GM(1 ,1 )model,but also improves the accuracy of the simulation and prediction of the GM(1 ,1 )model.