基于 CVA-DEA 区域物流供需系统均衡发展的评价研究

摘要

在区域物流发展不平衡的背景下，基于现金增加值法（CVA）从物流供需角度构建区域物流供需系统均衡发展的评价指标体系。采用 DEA 模型和均衡发展模型，对2007-2011年我国31个省市八大区域的物流差异进行系统内和系统间的解析，并对供需系统的结构效度和规模效度进行比较。结果表明：我国八大区域的物流发展呈现出明显的区域不平衡性和空间梯度性，区域物流发展的均衡性与经济发展水平正相关；区域物流系统发展的均衡性主要受系统内和系统间要素的投入产出结构、发展规模等因素的影响，不同地区的供需结构和供需规模具有显著差异。%Against the background of unbalanced development of regional logistics, we adopted the CVA methods and constructed an evaluation index system from the angle of logistic supply and demand for balanced development of regional logis-tic systems.With the DEA model and balanced development model, we analyzed the differences within and among logistic sys-tems of 8 large regions across 31 provinces in China during 2007 -2011, and compared the construct validity and scale validity of their supply-demand systems.The results show that the logistic development has obvious regional imbalance and presents a gradient in their development level in the 8 logistic regions.It is also found that the balanced development of regional logistic systems is positively related to the economic level of the regions, and is mainly influenced by factors like production input-out-put structure and scale of the regional logistic systems; the structure and scale of logistic supply and demand have significant distinctions in the 8 different regions.