浅谈捕获-再捕获法在药品不良反应发生率估计中的应用研究

摘要

目的 探讨捕获-再捕获(capture-recapture,CR)法在药品不良反应(adverse drug reaction,ADR)发生率估计中的应用,更准确地监测ADR发生率,为进一步促进我国药品不良反应监测工作提供思路和参考.方法 运用数理统计学方法阐述CR法的原理、应用条件,并通过案例分析其在ADR发生率估计中的作用及存在问题.结果与结论 CR 法适合在多个大样本监测到不同ADR发生率的基础上,对ADR总数及发生率进行估计,能进一步明确ADR发生率,为监测不良反应发生率提供实效性方法,值得在不良反应监测研究中推广应用.%Objective To discuss the application of capture-recapture (CR) method in the assessment for the incidence of ADR, and get a more accurate monitoring of the incidence of ADR, in order to provide thought and references for the promotion of ADR monitoring in China.MethodsUsing the mathematical statistics method to review the principle, and application condition of CR method, and through the case-analysis,it is revealed the role of CR method in the incidence of ADR estimation and some problems about CR method.ResuIts & ConcIusion CR method is appropriate for many big databases which can monitor different incidence of ADR.It is the effective method that can estimate the total incidence of ADR and make sure of the incidence of adverse reactions, which is worthy of applying in the research of ADR monitoring.