基于遗传优化的西太平洋副高异常活动年份的动力预报模型反演

摘要

On the basis of the potential field data on 500 hPa from 2000–2010 from NCEP/NCAR, introducing the ideas of EOF(empirical orthogonal function) time-space separation and the dynamic system reconstruction of time series, with the advantages of the global optimization and parallel calculation by genetic assistance, dynamic model inversion is carried out, thus a nonlinear forecast model of the subtropical high activity and aberrance is established. And a mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high activity was carried out. The results of dynamic model forecast experiment showed that the mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high pressure by our model can be very actual. Especially, the aberrance of the subtropical high pressure can be drawn and forecast. A new method of idea is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high activity.%　　基于2000—2010年NECR/NECP的500 hPa位势场资料，用EOF时空分解方法和动力模型重构思想，通过遗传算法的全局优化搜索和并行计算途径，开展了500 hPa位势场动力预报模型反演，建立了刻画副高活动的非线性动力预报模型，实现了副高活动的中长期预报。模型预报试验表明，该模型对副高的中长期活动，尤其是异常活动能够较好地描述和预报，进而为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路。