Sensitivity of Selected ETCCDI Climate Indices from the Calculation Method for Projected Future Climate

摘要

Statistical bias correction of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used in the recent decade for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. In this study, output from simulations for the present-day (1961-1990) climate, as well as for the near future scenario (2021-2050), performed with ALADIN-Climate in the frame of the CECILIA project, are used for calculation of selected ETCCDI climate indices. The same subset, but based on observational database E-OBS, is taken from the open archive ClimData and used as reference. The results of the computations, performed over the interior of the Balkan Peninsula, demonstrates the possibilities of the delta-change approach and its modifications. The outcome from the study confirms the high sensitivity of the absolute-threshold indices from the applied bias corrections. Overall, the sign of the change caused by all of the applied methods, agrees with the consolidated outcome from the recent studies of the projected future climate in SE Europe. The general distribution pattern of the climate change signal, expressed with the thermal indices, is similar for all considered techniques. This signal shows, however, in the field of the precipitation-based indices, significant spatial irregularities and non-negligible differences depending on the method applied.