Cross-validation of resource estimates from discovery process modelling and volumetric accumulation modelling: example from the Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the halten Terrace, offshore Norway

摘要

Volumetric accumulation modelling attempts to capture the essentials of the hydrocarbon generation, entrapment and retention processes leading to a family of accumulations in a petroleum play. Discovery process modelling uses the size distribution of discovered hydrocarbon accumulations and the efficiency of the exploration effort to estimate the number and sizes of undiscovered accumulations in a play. Direct incorporation of exploration data and geological judgement is a prerequisite for the volumetric modelling, whereas accurately representing exploration efficiency through the discovery sequence is a prerequisite for discovery process modelling. How to achieve a valid play definition is a problem common to both methods. Cross-validation of the two methods applied to the same play can sharpen the focus of each method if used individually, as well as capltalize on the strong points of both methods if used in an integrated approach. These issues are exemplified through a case study focussing on the assessment of the undiscovered potential of the pre-rift Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the Halten Terrace, Mid-Norway continental shelf.