Stochastic monthly rainfall time series analysis, modeling and forecasting in Kavala city, Greece, North-Eastern Mediterranean basin

摘要

Rainfall is one of the most important sources of water on earth supporting the existenpe of the majority of living organisms. Time series analysis, modeling and forecasting constitutes a tool of paramount importance with reference to a wide range of scientific purposes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation, humidity, temperature, solar radiation, floods and draughts). The present research applies the Box-Jenkins approach, employing SAR.IMA (Seasonal Autorregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to perform short term forecasts of monthly rainfall in Kavala city, Kavala Prefecture, Region of Eastern Macedonia-Thrace, North-Eastern Greece, North-Eastern Mediterranean Basin, modeling past rainfall time series components structure and predicting future quantities in accordance to the past. The model which is mostly fit to both describe the past rainfall data and thus generate the most reliable future forecasts is selected rated by means of both the AIC- and BIC- (SBC-) model evaluation criteria. The conclusions of this research will provide local authorities (e.g. General Secretariat for Civil Protection, European Center for Forest Fires, Deputy Governor of Agricultural Economy, daily fire risk maps designers, hydraulic, irrigation and environmental engineers, city inhabitants, farmers etc.) to develop strategic plans, policies and appropriate use of available water resources in Kavala city district.