The New Evaluation Mechanism of Water Scarcity

摘要

This paper examines water scarcity from both social and environmental perspectives in arrange of 6 factors. 3 social factors and 3 environmental factors are used to analyse both physical and economic water scarcity. After collecting all above factors of 176 countries or regions, a rating mechanism is developed by dividing each variable into 3 to 5 levels to present a neural network model. Then further improve our initial network model into a hybrid model by incorporating grey forecasting model. Shandong Province of China is chosen to explain, where water resources are heavily exploited. After analysing its water scarcity condition comprehensively from the perspectives of society and environment, The results are: a) It suffers from physical water scarcity more than economic. b) In 15 years, with the growth of GDP, water shortage situation of Shandong has been improved. c) To release water stress, the government should expand its budget deficit moderately.