A comprehensive analysis method for the economic impact of the extreme weather disasters: A CGE model approach

摘要

In recent years the extreme weather disasters are occurring more and more frequently, which caused a great impact on the economy. After comparing with 5 kinds of methods in the evaluation losses of natural disasters field, that is comprehensive evaluation model, econometric model, IO model, SAM model and CGE model, this paper contributes a comprehensive analysis strategy in condition of different situations. Further, CGE model has its advantage in systematic, structural, non-liner, quantitative and scenario analysis, then this paper focuses on simulation process for 4 stages of disasters responses, which are very-short run, short run, medium run and long run, and design the corresponding character of the closures, parameters and shocks. In the end, an example of how to estimate ice-snow disaster in Hunan province in 2008 is present.