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Runoff Prediction in Eastern South Dakota: A Comparison Between Runoff Programs/Curve Method and Empirical Data

机译:南达科他州东部的径流预测:径流程序/曲线方法与经验数据之间的比较

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Water contamination and nutrient loss from agriculture fields due to runoff events is a problem across the country. It affects not only the farmer themselves and those close to them but also those downstream. This is why teams across the country havebeen developing programs to help farmers know when it would be least risky to apply nutrients to their fields. These runoff risk and management tools have a tendency to be made for areas that are wetter and more runoff risk prone. The goal of this project was to determine if the runoff assessment tools like the commonly used Curve Method equation, would accurately predict total water runoff in Eastern South Dakota. To accomplish this, past data from field runoff events were examined alongside the CurveNumber Method Equation (Huffman 2011). Such factors as soil, crop type, and topography were all taken into account in the examination. Linear regression alongside normalized mean square error compared the measured runoff and the predicted runoff. The R2associated with the linear regression was 0.67, indicating a relationship between measured and predicted runoff. Normalized mean square errors, however, were excessively large and showed a 3.9 inflation ofpredicted runoff compared to the measured runoff.Therefore, the Curve Number Equation method has the tendency to overestimate runoff amounts in Eastern South Dakota for the watersheds used in the comparison.
机译:由于径流事件导致的农业领域的水污染和养分损失是全国各地的问题。它不仅影响农民本身和靠近他们的人,而且影响到他们的那些下游。这就是为什么在全国各地的球队开发方案,以帮助农民知道何时将营养素应用于其领域的风险最小。这些径流风险和管理工具具有趋势,可以为潮湿的区域和越来越容易发生的风险。该项目的目标是确定径流评估工具是否像常用的曲线方法方程一样,可以准确地预测南达科他州东部的全水径流。为实现这一点,从Curovember方法方程(Huffman 2011)一起检查来自现场径流事件的过去的数据。在考试中都考虑到土壤,作物类型和地形等因素。线性回归与标准化均方误差相比,测量的径流和预测的径流。线性回归的R2分配为0.67,表示测量和预测径流之间的关系。然而,与测量的径流相比,归一化均线的均值误差过大并显示出3.9次通胀率的预测径流。因此,曲线数等式方法具有比较中使用的流域的东南达科他州的径流量的趋势。

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