Probabilistic Shoreline Evolution Modeling in Response to Sea Level Changes

摘要

This study aims to predict probabilistic shoreline evolution in response to sea level changes, land subsidence, and onshore sand transport by using Monte Carlo simulation approach. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and long-term shoreline changes induced by random offshore waves. To determine landward sediment transport and shoreline responses to sea level changes, a modified Bruun rule is implemented into the GenCade model. The other two terms for long-term shoreline changes are also implemented into the GenCade model. A probability density function is used to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair weather and extreme weather conditions. It produces time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). A long-term shoreline changes in a hypothetical beach are simulated by considering wave climates, sea level change scenarios, land subsidence, and onshore transport. Probabilistic shoreline changes are computed by using the GenCade and Monte Carlo simulations.