An estimation method of the volume of passengers on board applicable for evaluation of traffic rescheduling plans

摘要

One of the most important issues concerning train traffic rescheduling, which is a series of modification of train schedules conducted when train traffic is disrupted by some troubles, is an evaluation of rescheduling plans. At present, no quantitative evaluation is made for rescheduling plans and rescheduling is done by experts called train dispatchers based on their experience and intuition. In this paper, we propose a method combining simulation and the Logit model to estimate the volume of passengers on trains for a given traffic rescheduling plan, so that we can calculate the evaluation indices quantittively from passengers' point of view.