摘要：
气候变暖背景下, 热量资源变化势必对寒地农作物生产环境、生长发育及种植制度产生重要影响.本文利用黑龙江省1971—2014年67个观测站逐日气象资料, 计算了≥10 °C活动积温和≥0 °C活动积温(以下简称积温)及无霜期等农业热量指标, 采用线性倾向率、累计距平、M-K检验和经验正交函数(EOF)方法等统计方法, 分析了热量资源变化特征及突变特征, 以及对农业生产的可能影响.结果表明: ≥10 °C积温和≥0 °C积温分别以86.7 °C·d·(10a)-1和80.5 °C·d·(10a)-1的速率显著增加, 无霜期呈延长趋势[倾向率为3.8 d·(10a)-1]; ≥10 °C积温和无霜期在1993年发生突变, 突变后二者初日提前, 终日延后.≥10 °C积温和≥0 °C积温的增加幅度西部大于东部, 无霜期延长幅度中西部大于东北部, 农业热量资源变化幅度大的地区亦是热量敏感区域.热量资源增加对农业的影响, 表现在农作物适宜生育期延长; 适宜水稻和玉米种植的区域向北、向西扩张, 大豆种植重心北移; 原适宜种植极早熟、早熟品种的区域逐步被中熟、中晚熟品种替换.热量增加使水稻、玉米和大豆三大作物产量的进一步提高成为可能.%Under the global warming background, heat resources variation has significant impact on production environment, growth and development, cropping system and cultivation zone of corps in the clod region. To explore variations in cultivation zones, growing seasons and yields of major crops (rice, maize and soybean) under climate change of Heilongjiang Province,China, we analyzed the characteristics of tempo-spatial changes and abrupt changes by using accumulated anomaly method, Mann-Kendall trends test and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of heat resources indices, including accumulated tem-perature above 10 °C and 0 °C and frost-free periods in 67 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2014 in Heilongjiang Province. We also calculated regression coefficients between heat resources indices and development stages of crops to investigate the influence of heat resources change on crop development. The differences in crop cultivate zones and yields between before and after abrupt change year were also discussed according to accumulated temperature above 10 °C and actual and meteorological yields. The results showed that the accumulated temperatures above 10 and 0°C increased significantly at rates of °C86.7 ·d·(10a)°C -1 and 80.5 ·d·(10a)°C -1, respectively, from 1971 to 2014. The annual frost-free period increased at a rate of 3.8 d·(10a)-1. There were abrupt changes in the accumulated temperatures above 10 and the annual average frost°C -free period in 1993. The accumulated temperature above 10 increased °C 226.1 °C·d averagely, and the frost-free period prolonged 9.2 d averagely after the abrupt change year. The abrupt change promoted the initial dates and postponed the ending dates of the temperatures above 10 °C, 0 and the frost°C -free period. From 1971 to 2014, the increasing rates of accumulated temperatures above 10 and 0°C °C were greater in the west than in the east. The annual frost-free period was longer in mid-west than in northeast. The area with greater change of heat resource was also sensitive area of agricultural heat resources change. With the increase of heat resources, the suitable growth period of crops prolonged. The planting areas of rice, maize northward and westward expended. The center of soybean cultivation area northward moved. The planting areas with original espe-cial-early-maturing and early-maturing crops varieties became the areas suitable for middle-maturing and middle-late-maturing varieties of crops. In general, the increased heat resources provided more yield increasing potential of rice, maize and soybean in Heilongjiang Province.
