摘要：
[Purpose/Significance]As the emergence of cognitive surplus and the rapid development of internet technology, network of public opinion has gradually become an important issue in the public voice and evaluation process. It is significant to crack down the major public opinion crisis, ease public sentiment and maintain social stability in the new situation.[Method/Process]In order to explore the problem of the public opinion evolution, this paper added the affinity between individuals into the classical HK model to construct an improved HK model based on the cognitive impairment per-spective firstly; It analyzed some factors that have an influence on the evolution of public opinion secondly, such as the ini-tial point of persistence, the heterogeneous trust levels, the individual affinity and the influence threshold; Thirdly, it used the case of the female driver being hit in Chengdu in 2015 as an example to verify the rationality of the model.[Re-sult/Conclusion]The results show that when the degree of opinion persistence obeys the normal distribution which the mean is 0.5, the opinion will complete the evolution faster; the larger affinity and the threshold of opinion can accelerate the evo-lution of public opinion. Finally, according to the above research results, this paper puts forward some strategies to deal with major public opinion crisis.%[目的/意义]认知盈余的出现以及互联网技术的迅猛发展,使得网络舆论逐渐成为公众发声与评议过程中的一项重要议题.在新形势下,如何合理引导网络舆论演化,对破解重大舆情危机,疏导公众情绪,维护社会长治久安具有重要的理论与现实意义.[方法/过程]基于认知失调视角,将个体之间的亲和度纳入经典HK模型,形成改进HK模型,在此基础上,集中分析了初始观点坚持度,异质信任水平,个体亲和度,观点影响阈值对网络舆论演化的影响,并以2015年成都女司机被打事件为例,对上述研究进行了案例分析.[结果/结论]研究结果显示,观点坚持度在均值为0.5的正态分布条件下,观点会较快完成演化;较大的个体亲和度和观点影响阈值对舆论的演化具有加速效应.最后针对上述研究结果,提出了应对重大舆情危机的相关策略.
