摘要：
The proportion of higher education expenditure as 4％of GDP is the objective to be achieved at the and of 20th contury which was proposed in 1993, how ever, until 2012 China's education financial input has just entered the"post 4％era".Facing the increase of gross enrollment rate of higher education and the continuous expansion of students'scale, it is urgent to scientifically predict the scale of fiscal investment in higher education.Based on the data of the economic growth and higher education scale in China in the last 20 years, the two stage regression (2SLS) method was used to predict the student scale and fiscal investment scale of higher education in China during the period of"14th Five-Year" (2021-2025).The results show as follows:in the period of"14th Fiveyear", China's higher education will still be in a flourishing period, the gross enrollment rate of higher education in 2025 is expected to exceed 60％, and the number of students at all levels of higher education is expected to break through 50 million.In the period of"14th Five-Year", if our country's economy keep steady growth (6.5％to 5.5％), the proportion of higher education fiscal investment will be around 1.046％to 1.194％.The scale of government investment will vary from 1036.6 billion to 1561.4 billion yuan.As a result, the academic circles and the decision-making departments of educational administration should strengthen the forecast research of the development of higher education, so as to support for the government to actively deal with the development of higher education, especially the increase of gross enrolment rate and the expansion of the scale of the students.In addition, the operating costs of universities should also be estimated scientifically, reasonably designing the comprehensive grant per student and the tuition fee standard of different type and quality universities based on the cost sharing principal of higher education.The government should improve the fiscal adequacy of higher education, gradually establish a long-term mechanism for the growth of higher education, and scientifically plan the way of the use of incremental funds.%财政性教育经费占GDP比例4％是我国1993年就提出的20世纪末需要达成的目标,但直到2012年我国教育财政投入才步入"后4％时代".面对高等教育毛入学率的提高和在校生规模的不断扩张,急需对高等教育财政投资规模进行科学预测.基于我国近20年的经济增速与高等教育发展规模数据,采用两阶段回归(2SLS)方法,对"十四五"期间(2021—2025年)我国高等教育学生规模和财政投资规模进行预测,结果发现:"十四五"期间,我国高等教育仍将处于蓬勃发展期,到2025年高等教育毛入学率有望超过60％,各级各类在校生人数有望突破5 000万;在"十四五"时期,若我国经济保持稳定增长(6.5％到5.5％),则我国高等教育财政投资比例的变动区间为1.046％到1.194％,高等教育财政投资规模的变动区间将在10 366亿元到15 614亿元之间.因此,学术界和教育行政管理决策部门应加强高等教育事业发展的预测研究,为政府积极应对高等教育事业发展,特别是毛入学率的提高和在校生规模的扩张做好决策支持.此外,政府应当科学估算高校办学成本,按照高等教育成本分担原则合理设计生均综合定额和不同类型、不同质量高校的学费标准,提高高等教育财政充足性,逐步建立高等教育生均经费增长的长效机制.
