摘要：
使用“十一五”“十二五”时期的相关省级面板数据,基于Cobb-Douglas成本函数推出能耗决定模型.在使用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算全要素生产率变化,并将其分解为技术进步、技术效率提升、规模效率提升的基础上,建立面板数据模型,并结合横截面数据模型,实证检验技术进步、效率提升、能源价格对总能源消耗强度以及煤炭、石油、电力等单一能源消耗强度的影响,用以实证分析技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应.实证结果显示,总体上看,技术进步、效率提升、价格调控具有节能效应,但只有规模效率提升、价格调控的节能效应统计上显著,技术进步、技术效率提升的节能效应统计上不显著.究其原因,与我国TFP增长速度明显落后于经济增长速度并在近年来呈现下降趋势直接相关,而且在TFP指数各分解成分中,技术进步指数、技术效率提升指数较低,规模效率提升指数相对较大.技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应在不同的单一能源之间、地区之闻存在差异,突出体现为价格调控对石油和电力的节能效应显著,而对煤炭的节能效应不理想;技术进步、技术效率提升的节能效应总体上不显著、但在西部地区有较好表现.究其原因,前者与电煤消费占比较高以及煤炭价格的双规制扭曲有关,后者得益于西部大开发战略的推动.为此,技术进步、技术效率提升效应的充分发挥应成为“十三五”时期及以后我国实现节能减排目标的重要抓手.技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应在不同单一能源之间、地区之间存在的差异,可为节能减排实践中的分类指导提供思路.%Based on the relevant provincial panel data of the 11th Five-Year Plan and the 12th Five-Year Plan,the model of energy consumption decision is deduced by Cobb-Douglas cost function.The variation of total factor productivity is determined by DEA-Malmquist index method and is decomposed into technological progress,technological efficiency improvement and scale efficiency improvement.On top of that,panel data model is set up.Combined with the cross-sectional data model,it analyzes the influence of technological progress,efficiency promotion and energy price on the total energy consumption intensity and the single energy consumption intensity of coal,oil and electricity,so as to demonstrate the energy-saving effect of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control.The results show that,on the whole,technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control have energy-saving effect.However,only the effect of scale efficiency improvement and price control are statistically significant,and the effect of technological progress and technical efficiency is statistically insignificant,which are attributed to the fact that the growth rate of TFP in China is obviously lagging behind the economic growth rate and is directly related to the declining trend in recent years.Moreover,in the decomposition of the TFP index,the technological progress index and the technical efficiency promotion index are relatively low and the scale efficiency promotion index is higher.The energy-saving effects of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control are different between the diverse single-energies and between the regions,eminently embodied to the significant influence of price control on the energy-saving effect of oil and electricity,and the non-ideal effect on coal.The energysaving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency are not significant due to the high proportion of thermal coal consumption as well as the twist of double regulation of coal price.While the energy-saving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency show better performances in the western region,which benefits from the western development strategy.All in all,the technological progress and technological efficiency promotion should be fully exerted,which will be the main access to achieve energy-saving emission reduction during the 13th Five-Year period and in the future.The differences of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control of energy-saving effect between different single-energies and regions may provide the suggestions for the classification of energysaving emission reduction.
