摘要：
利用土地利用转移矩阵、RS、GIS技术,根据2006、2010、2015年3期遥感影像数据和统计年鉴数据,分析2006-2015年石羊河流域土地利用变化情况,借助碳存储和碳排放的估算方法对2006-2015年石羊河流域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的碳效应进行剖析,运用模糊线性规划法对研究区土地利用结构进行规划.结果表明:2006-2015年石羊河流域林地、建设用地和未利用地呈增加趋势,未利用地、建设用地增加明显,林地略有增加;草地、耕地和水域呈减少趋势,耕地和草地减少显著,大量转化为未利用地,弃耕和荒化现象明显;建设用地是最重要的碳源,林地、水域、耕地、草地是主要的碳汇,未利用地的碳收支密度较低,但面积较大,对区域净碳储量贡献较大;土地利用碳存储量大于碳排放量,存在碳吸收盈余现象,但是盈余的空间有缩小态势.在增汇减排目标的模糊线性规划情景下,石羊河流域林地、草地、耕地、水域面积增加,建设用地和未利用地减少.石羊河流域的碳存储增加了1.733 1×109kg,碳排放减少了4.898 4×109kg,净碳存储量增加了6.631 5×109kg,碳排放明显减少.规划方案增汇减排的效果明显,有效缓解陆地生态系统的碳排放,达到优化土地利用结构的目的.%Via the transfer matrix of land use,the RS and GIS technology and according to the 2006,2010,2015 remote sensing image and statistical yearbook data,the land-use and land-cover changes in Shiyang River Basin from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed.With the carbon emission and carbon absorption estimating formulas,the carbon effects of different land use types in the same period were estimated.The optimizing of land-use structure in the basin was studied with fuzzy linear programming model.The results indicated that from 2006 to 2015,forest,construction and un-utilized lands were increasing,with the increase of un-utilized and construction land being very significant,while woodland increased slightly.Grassland,cultivated land and waters were decreasing and cultivated and grassland were reduced signifi cantly.Most of them were converted into un-utilized land.Abandoned and wasted phenomena were quite obvious.Construction land use was the main source of carbon emission and the forestland,waters,cultivated land,grassland and unused land were the main land use types of carbon absorption.The land use carbon absorption was higher than its carbon emission.There was a carbon absorption surplus,but the surplus space was in a decreasing trend.Under the circumstances of the scenario of fuzzy linear programming that can reduce emission and increase carbon sink,the forest,grass and cultivated land and waters in Shiyang River Basin increased and construction and unused land decreased.The carbon storage caused by land use/cover changes increased by 1.733 1 × 109 kg;the carbon emissions were reduced by 4.898 4×109 kg and the net carbon storage increased by 6.631 5× 109 kg.The carbon emissions were dramatically reduced.The effect of the fuzzy linear programming model is obvious,as it can effectively mitigate carbon emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and optimize the land use structure.
