摘要：
运用梅江中上游河段两个国家气象站和两个水文站的时间序列数据,应用累积滤波器、KendaLL的秩次相关和小波分析等方法对该河段气象水文要素的长期变化趋势及周期性进行了分析。结果显示：①梅江中上游河段降水量、径流量呈不同程度的减少趋势,而气温则表现出较明显的上升趋势,其中两个水文站径流量的减少趋势和气温的增加趋势十分显著,均通过了置信度为95％的显著性检验；②该河段气温、降水、径流序列周期变化不一,年均气温只有28a的主周期,年降水变化的主周期依次为28a、12a、7a和4a,尖山站和水口站径流量变化的主周期很接近,尖山站依次为28a、20a、12a、8a和5a,水口站依次为29a、20a、12a、9a和5a；③另一方面,在河段气温上升、降水量几乎保持不变的情况下,两个水文站的径流量明显减少,这是人类活动所致还是气候变化的影响,还有待进一步研究。%The temperature, precipitation and runoff are the three key factors of meteoroLogy and hydroLogy. It is of great importance to the deveLopment of agricuLture and economy to anaLyze the characteristics of change and evoLution ruLe of the three factors. Using time series data of the two nationaL meteoroLogy stations and two hydroLogy stations in the middLe and upper reaches of the Meijiang River and combining some methods such as cumuLative fiLter, KendaLL's rank correLation and waveLet anaLysis to anaLyze the secuLar variation trend and the periodicity of meteoroLogy and hydroLogy essentiaL factor in this reach. The resuLts show that:(1) The precipitation and runoff exhibit different degrees of reduction trend, but the temperature dispLays an obvious trend of escaLation. The decreasing trend of runoff at the two hydroLogy stations and the increasing of temperature are extremeLy remarkabLe and pass the confidence LeveL of 95% of the significant test; (2) The temperature, precipitation and runoff sequence of this reach have muLti-time scaLes periodic variation, the annuaL average temperature of the main cycLe is onLy 28a, the main cycLes of precipitation are 28a,12a,7a and 4a, the main cycLes of Jianshan station and Shuikou station are simiLar approximateLy, the former are 28a, 20a, 12a, 8a and 5a, the Latter 29a, 20a, 12a, 9a and 5a; (3) On the other hand, the runoff at the two hydroLogy stations in this reach show significant decreasing trend in the case of rise in temperature and precipitation that remains aLmost unchanged, which is caused by human activities or cLimate change and shouLd be studied further.
