摘要：
利用NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource ( POWER)网站和中国气象数据共享网中云南省1983~2013年台站的逐日气温数据和太阳辐射数据,基于FAO农业生态区域法和瓦赫宁根大学的马铃薯光合生产潜力模型,估算云南省马铃薯周年生产潜力。结果表明：比较三种马铃薯产量潜力的计算方法,结合国内外的生产实际, FAO农业生态区域法的光温产量潜力模型是目前较符合实际的计算马铃薯产量潜力的方法,并且有可能达到最大的实际产量的计算方法,其计算结果为大春(134．2±9．0) t/hm2,小春为(76．6±14．8) t/hm2,秋作为(76．2±8．3) t/hm2,冬作为(70．1±15．1) t/hm2。当水分不是限制因素时,海拔1000m以上为大春马铃薯稳产高产区域；滇东北,滇东南和北纬25．5~26．5度间为小春马铃薯稳产高产区域。滇东北为秋作马铃薯稳产高产区域(经度在东经102．5~105．5之间)。云南省冬作马铃薯生产适宜区主要分布在滇中和滇南地区,面积较广,同时也是高产区域,滇西北和滇东北大部分区域不适宜种植冬作马铃薯,即海拔2200m以下范围为适宜冬作区域,其余地区则为不适宜区域。海拔550~950m左右区域的冬作光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力最高。当水分不是限制因素时,在滇南950m海拔以下为稳产高产区域。%The annual potato potential yield in Yunnan province was assessed based on daily mean temperature and solar radiation data from 1983-2013 from NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource ( POWER) and China meteorological data sharing service system,using the FAO agricultural ecological zone and the photosynthesis poten-tial yield of Wageningen model. The results showed that compared with three methods of the calculation of the pota-to potential yield, the FAO potential yield model was a better method of calculating the potato potential yield which can achieve maximum actual yield. The potential yield was(134. 2 ± 9. 0)t/hm2of spring potato, (76. 6 ± 14. 8)t/hm2 of early spring potato, (76. 2 ± 8. 3) t/hm2 of fall potato and(70. 1 ± 15. 1) t/hm2 of winter potato. When the water was not a limiting factor, the area of the altitude above 1000 meter was the high and stable yield area of spring potato, the areas of northeast, southeast Yunnan and between 25. 5 to 26. 5 degrees north latitudeweresuit-able for the high and stable yield early spring potato, and the area of the northeast Yunnan was suitable for the high and stable yield of autumn potato(the longitude between E102. 5-105. 5 ). The suitable aera for planting winter pota-to mainly distributed in the middle of Yunnan and south of Yunnan, and northwest of Yunnan and northeast of Yun-nan most area were not suitable for planting winter potato due to the altitude of above 2200 m. The area with the high-est photosynthesis and light-temperature potential yield of winter potato was in the altitude between 550-950m, and the area of the high and stable yield of winter potato in south of Yunnan was below the altitude of 950 meter.
