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摘要： This paper applies software analytics to open source code. Open-source software gives both individuals and businesses the flexibility to work with different parts of available code to modify it or incorporate it into their own project. The open source software market is growing. Major companies such as AWS, Facebook, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Netflix, SAP, Cisco, Intel, and Tesla have joined the open source software community. In this study, a sample of 40 open source applications was selected. Traditional McCabe software metrics including cyclomatic and essential complexities were examined. An analytical comparison of this set of metrics and derived metrics for high risk software was utilized as a basis for addressing risk management in the adoption and integration decisions of open source software. From this comparison, refinements were added, and contemporary concepts of design and data metrics derived from cyclomatic complexity were integrated into a classification scheme for software quality. It was found that 84% of the sample open source applications were classified as moderate low risk or low risk indicating that open source software exhibits low risk characteristics. The 40 open source applications were the base data for the model resulting in a technique which is applicable to any open source code regardless of functionality, language, or size.

摘要： Objective Atherosclerosis is considered a chronic inflammatory condition.The immune system is a key mediator in the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis.In a previous study,we found that the immune system was activated in diabetes and that total white blood cell(WBC)counts were elevated significantly in diabetic patients.To investigate whether WBC subtype counts in newly diagnosed diabetes are risk factors for future cardiovascular disease(CVD)events,we conducted a prospective population-based cohort study.Methods A total of 1498 newly diagnosed diabetic patients aged 40 to 70 years old were followed up for three years.Participants with previous CVD history and abnormal WBC counts were excluded.CVD events were recorded during follow-up.Results We found that the baseline lymphocyte counts were independently associated with cardiovascular events during follow-up,with the Exp(β)(95%CI)at 1.749(1.084-2.821).Lymphocyte count≥2.9(10^(9)/L)was significantly associated with the development of CVD(HR,2.29;95%CI,1.12-4.67).The corresponding incidence of CVD per 1000 person-year for the lymphocyte count≤2.8(10^(9)/L)and lymphocyte count≥2.9(10^(9)/L)groups were 11.26 and 26.38,respectively.Conclusion We concluded that even in a normal range,higher lymphocyte levels may result in a significantly higher CVD risk among diabetic patients.Lymphocyte count≥2.9(10^(9)/L)is an independent predictor of developing future CVD events.

摘要： BACKGROUND The increased stroke risk associated with atrial fibrillation(AF)burden exceeding 5 min is a matter of debate.In addition,the potential linear or nonlinear relationship between AF burden and stroke risk has been largely unexplored.AIM To determine the association between AF burden>5 min and the increased risk of stroke and explore the potential dose-response relationship between these two factors.METHODS Sixteen studies from six databases with 53141 subjects(mean age 65 years)were included.Fifteen studies were observational studies,and one was a randomized controlled trial study.The potential nonlinear dose-response association was characterized using a restricted cubic splines regression model.AF burden for each 1 h and 2 h was associated with an increased risk of stroke.Trial sequential analysis with a random-effect model was used to evaluate the robustness of the evidence from the included 16 studies.RESULTS AF burden>5 min was associated with an increased risk of clinical AF[adjusted risk ratio(RR)=4.18,95%confidence interval(CI):2.26-7.74].However,no association was found with an increased risk of all-cause mortality(adjusted RR=1.55,95%CI:0.87-2.75).Patients with AF burden>5 min had an increased risk of stroke(adjusted RR=2.49,95%CI:1.79-3.47).Moreover,a dose-response analysis showed that the increased stroke risk was paralleled by an increase in AF burden at a rate of 2.0%per hour(Pnonlinear=0.656,RR=1.02,95%CI:1.01-1.03).Trial sequential analysis provided robust evidence of the association between AF burden>5 min and an increased risk of stroke.CONCLUSION AF burden was a significant risk factor for clinical AF and future stroke.A significant linear association was documented between increased AF burden and risk of future stroke.

摘要： Pesticide is one of the major inputs in modern agriculture and its uses are increasing annually. Pesticides are seen as inherently benign, in the same way that medicines are. Many local languages even use the same word for “pesticide” and “medicine”. Along with the increasing consumption of pesticides, Highly Hazardous Pesticides (HHPs), which are more toxic are still in widespread use in Asia and constitute a substantial challenge to human health and the environment especially in low- and middle-income countries with less resources, training and capacities to deal with them. Reducing the risks posed by HHPs has become a priority in various international chemicals management policies, and many countries have started taking action accordingly. The objective of the paper is to establish the national status of the use of HHPs in Asia in line with FAO/WHO criteria for HHPs and encourage deliberate consideration of mitigation options for effective management of HHPs. This report is based on the nationally registered pesticide active ingredients and other related information obtained from Pesticide Registration Authorities of 13 Asian countries and research reports of different national and international journals. There are currently about 3557 pesticide products (active ingredients) registered in 13 Asian countries to control pests on crops and for public health uses, and 214 HHPs among the list of registered pesticides still in use in these Asian countries. An analysis of the list of registered formulated products revealed that 61 different active ingredients are included in these 214 registered HHPs in Asian countries. Considering the global concern of HHPs, there is thus every reason to develop mass awareness raising programmes based on knowledge, aptitude and practices and to disseminate them within the community in order to inform about the risks of HHPs and to replace HHPs and mitigate human risk and exposure to HHPs. It is concluded that detailed surveys and studies should be formulated with help of experts from academia and research organizations to construct a baseline data which may be helpful to tone down the HHP situation in the country.

摘要： The traditional finance approach to decision analysis,based on neo-classical economics,assumes self-interested,utility maximizing approach,and risk aversion.This essay points to a situation that investment in a risky asset(Bitcoin)is directly related to an increase in market risk,measured by SKEW index.This contradicts the traditional approach and aligns to several findings of behavioral finance.More specifically,it shows that investors may be risk seeking actors in anticipation to a belief that volatility will return to normal levels.

摘要： BACKGROUND Fractures of the proximal femur epiphysis are problematic for state health care because they are associated with severe medical and social problems and high morbidity and mortality rates.AIM To model the potential risk of hip fracture via femur geometric parameters.METHODS Seventy educational cadaveric femurs from people aged 14 to 80 years,10 X-ray images from the records of the Human Anatomy Department and 10 X-ray images from the Department of Traumatology,Orthopedics and Disaster Surgery of Sechenov University,were evaluated.The parameters of the fractured bone were measured using images captured with a Canon d60 camera.The projection values of the proximal epiphysis of the cadaveric femurs and geometric parameters of the bones shown in the X-ray images were measured with Autodesk software(AutoCAD 2018).Analysis of the video frames showing bone rotation reveal that the greater trochanter can be inscribed in a parallelepiped,where one of the faces is parallel to the plane of view in the frontal standard projection and is rectangular.The angle of bone rotation obtained by turning the cube corresponded to the angle measured with the second technique.This reliable method of calculating the rotation of the bone relative to the anterior projection was employed in subsequent calculations.The geometric parameters of the femur were measured using X-ray images according to the proposed method.RESULTS The geometric parameters of 70 femurs were analyzed,and correlation coefficients were calculated.Our measurement results were compared with those reported by other authors.The potential influence of femur geometry on force distribution in the proximal epiphysis of the femur was described,and a 2-dimensional model of the femur epiphysis associated with minimal neck fracture risk was provided.The assessment of the geometric parameters of the femoral epiphysis indicated the greatest risk of a varus fracture of the neck if the angle of the minimal resistance zone(AMRZ)index>24°and the neck-shaft angle(NSA)128.87°.CONCLUSION The proposed method provides the potential femur neck fracture risk based on geometric parameters.

摘要： In 2020,an international group of experts proposed to replace the term of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD).This recent proposal reflects the close association of fatty liver with metabolic derangements,as demonstrated by previous robust data.Several factors[including genetics,inflammation,metabolic abnormalities,insulin resistance(IR),obesity,prenatal determinants,and gut–liver axis]have been found to be involved in MAFLD pathophysiology,but this tangled puzzle remains to be clearly understood.In particular,IR has been recognized as a key player in metabolic impairments development in children with fatty liver.On this ground,MAFLD definition focuses on the pathophysiological basis of the disease,by emphasizing the crucial role of metabolic impairments in this condition.Although primarily developed for adults,MAFLD diagnostic criteria have been recently updated with an age-appropriate definition for sex and age percentiles,because of the increasing attention to cardiometabolic risk in childhood.To date,accumulating evidence is available on the feasibility of MAFLD definition in clinical practice,but some data are still conflicting in highly selected populations.Considering the growing prevalence worldwide of fatty liver and its close relationship with metabolic dysfunction both in children and adults with subsequent increased cardiovascular risk,early strategies for MAFLD identification,treatment and prevention are needed.Novel therapeutic insights for MAFLD based on promising innovative biological techniques are also emerging.We aimed to summarize the most recent evidence in this intriguing research area both in children and adults.

摘要： The COVID-19 pandemic affected the operational risk of organizations,requiring its management through Internal Control Systems(ICS).The tourism sector in Portugal,one of the largest and most competitive,was also one of the most affected by the pandemic,which emerged in March 2020.The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the perception of tourism managers about the relationship between the existence of internal control and risk mitigation in their companies.We present a quantitative study carried out by questionnaire,sent to 830 managers from tourism companies in the region of Porto,Portugal.Most participants consider crucial the implementation of ICS and a competitive advantage in the current pandemic context.They also consider that the implementation of ICS is not accessible to all companies,but its absence does not necessarily make them more fragile.The study also concludes that besides internal control,the role of the Portuguese Government was crucial to overcome the difficulties caused by the pandemic and to ensure companies’recovery.Financial support from the government allows companies to invest in procedures to overcome the pandemic situation,such as strengthening cleanliness measures,focusing on new technologies,and creating products and/or services more attractive to consumers.This study contributes to the perception of tourism managers about internal control,highlight the need to implement risk analysis routines to manage risks that may threaten the company activities,and highlight the government’s role in business recovery.

摘要： The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting the time to development of tuberculosis in the presence of competing risks. In this case death before developing tuberculosis was deemed a competing risk because it altered the occurrence of the outcome of interest being time to development of tuberculosis from baseline. We used data from a randomized longitudinal clinical trial study called the “Tshepo” study. The “Tshepo” study was a 3-year randomized clinical study following 650 ART-naïve adults (69.4% female) from Botswana who initiated first-line NNRTI-based ART. Participants were assigned in equal proportions (in an open-label, unblinded fashion) to one of 6 initial treatment arms and one of two adherence arms using permuted block randomization. Randomization was stratified by CD4+ cell count (less than 200 cells/mm3, 201 - 350 cells/mm3) and by whether the participants had an adherence assistant. Classical methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method and standard Cox proportional hazards regression were used to analyze survival data ignoring the competing event(s) which may have been inappropriate in the presence of competing risks. The idea was to use competing risk models to investigate how different treatment regimens affect the time to the development of TB and compare the results to those obtained using the classical survival analysis model which does not account for competing risks. Amongst 38 patients who died 15.8% of them developed tuberculosis whilst 84.2% of those who died did not develop the outcome of interest. The hazard ratio of treatment C was 1.069 implying that the risk of developing TB in patients taking treatment C is about 6.9% higher compared to those taking treatment A having adjusted for baseline age, baseline BMI, baseline CD4, Hemoglobin and gender. Similarly, after accounting for competing risks the hazard ratio for treatment C was about 1.89 implying that the risk of developing TB amongst those taking treatment C was about 89% higher as compared to those taking treatment A. From the obtained results it was thus concluded that the standard Cox model of time to event data in the presence of competing risks underestimated the hazard ratios hence when dealing with data with multiple failure events it is important to account for competing events.

摘要： Objective To explore the benefits and risks of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors Atezolizumab and Nivolumab in the treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer and provide some references for clinicians.Methods Based on the data results of relevant studies published by ClinicalTrical.gov in the US clinical trial database and foreign peer-reviewed journals,the internationally recognized multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA)model was used to assess the benefit and risk of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors for non-squamous non-small lung cancer comprehensively.Finally,a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the sensitivity of the weight to the evaluation.Results and Conclusion The benefit-risk evaluation result of Atezolizumab for the treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is better than that of Nivolumab.Specifically,Atezolizumab has more benefits than Nivolumab with a lower risk.The results of MCDA model in drug benefit and risk evaluation are easy to understand.However,the selection of indicators in the model and the degree of data acquisition are limited.The evaluation results of the MCDA model should be comprehensively viewed with other evaluations to make decisions objectively.

摘要： 本发明公开了一种新型9基因RISK急性髓系白血病预后模型的构建方法以及基于预后模型的试剂盒和列线图模型的应用。本发明利用急性髓系白血病转录组通过加权基因共表达网络分析筛选与疾病预后相关基因模块，利用单变量Cox回归分析联合WGCNA模块分析确定AML预后核心相关基因，将上述筛选的AML预后核心基因使用Lasso回归进行模型构建，得到新型9基因RISK急性髓系白血病预后模型。经过各种验证，新的预后模型具有更好的评估效果。