Method and financial product for estimating geographic mortgage risk

摘要

A quarterly index projects geographic market risk for 200 MSAs over the next four to eight quarters. The index ratings use a grading scale that ranges from 1 to 10. A score of 1 indicates that an MSA is very unlikely to experience further decline in the model variables, which include home prices, local economy, population stability, and mortgage delinquency trends. A grade of 10 indicates the greatest chance for future decline. For example, a score of a 10 would indicate that it would be a good time to pull out of a market; whereas, a score of a 1 indicates a market that is a good investment.