Predicting risk and return for a portfolio of entertainment projects

摘要

A portfolio of entertainment project such that the risk and return available to investors is attractive compared to other investments. Risk and return for a portfolio of entertainment projects is predicted based on historical performance of past “similar” projects. In one implementation, characteristics that are predictive of a project's revenue are determined by performing a cluster analysis of historical revenues from past projects. Projects in the portfolio are classified into various segments based on these predictive characteristics. Projects are selected to contruct a portfolio. The risk and return for the portfolio is calculated according to a risk-return model that is based on historical risk and revenues for past projects in the same segment and further based on historical covariance of revenue for past projects in different segments.