PUBLIC PENSION FINANCE FORECASTING SYSTEM AND PUBLIC PENSION FINANCE FORECASTING PROGRAM

摘要

PPROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system and a computer program to forecast public pension finance and stochastically analyze risks by introducing new rules based on 2004 reform in public pension finance. PSOLUTION: The system has means for stochastically predicting the number of insured persons and premium income, the number of pensioners and the amount of pension, basic pension contribution and state liability, and various resultant indices, such as the end year of macroeconomic indexation, a funding ratio and a model replacement ratio, by a Monte Carlo simulation technique while stochastically changing at least one of death, birth, price increase, wage increase and reserve return rates. PCOPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT