Method for determining a time course of an accident occurring in a risk-prone installation

摘要

A method for determining a time course of an accident which occurs inside an installation in which takes place at least one risk-prone process, characterized in that it comprises: (a) a step (M_S) for determining a source term (S(t)) which identifies a source at the origin of the accident and which comprises rate data of a harmful substance emitted by the identified source, (b) a step (M_cd) for calculating in real time, amounts of the harmful substance present in different points of the installation, from said rate and from geometrical data (GI1) of the installation, and (c) a diagnostic step (M_D) at the end of which a datum (dInt) of feasibility or non-feasibility of intervention in the installation is delivered, after analysis of the time-dependent variations of the amounts calculated in the calculation step.