Method of analysis and forecast of development of the epidemic situation caused by socially significant airborne infection

摘要

1. A method for the risk assessment of occurrence of the epidemic situation caused by droplet infection, including periodic sampling within the boundaries of the territory, ongoing monitoring of patients, and the prognosis for the population within the boundaries of the territory, characterized by chtoezhenedelno determine the number (K) of patients within the boundaries of the territory, parallel exercise weekly air sampling and / or swabs from the surface in public places, while in selected samples, the concentration (Sprob) RNA viral antigens and infectious titer (ITprob) viral material, and meet the conditions: Sprob higher than the lower threshold and ITprob exceeds the background value of moving to a daily selection of said sample, and a simultaneous rise in the absolute values ​​of K and Sprob ITprob risk of outbreak / epidemic situation is evaluated as vysokiy.2. The method of claim. 1, characterized in that the airborne infections include influenza, measles, rubella and parotit.3. The method of claim. 1, characterized in that the indicator ITprob infectious titer is defined as a generalized concentrated purified viral material for cytopathogenic effect (CPE), the lower threshold for the receive ITprob background znachenie.4 found experimentally. The method of claim. 1, characterized in that the concentration Sprob RNA viral antigens was determined by polymerase chain reaction with fluorescence detection in real-time (RT-PCR) .5. The method of claim 1, wherein the average skorostrazvitiya flash / epidemiological situation is calculated by the expressions:., N- where the number of people