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METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE INDIVIDUAL RISK OF DEVELOPING ENDEMIC GOITER IN HUMANS FOR DIFFERENT LIFE PERIODS

机译:预测不同寿命期间人类发展中地方性甲状腺肿的个体风险的方法

摘要

FIELD: medicine.;SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine and ecology. In human biomass, the content of iodine, zinc, nickel, manganese, chromium and lead is determined. Define diagnostic laboratory indicators: thyroxine free (T4 free); thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH); antibodies to thyroglobulin (antibodies to TG); antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (antibodies to TPO). Define the marker indicators of ultrasound of the thyroid: volume of the thyroid, its structure and blood flow, and compare these values with the physiological norm. Find the function of violation of Fi according to the claimed mathematical formula. Using the appropriate weighting factor ϕi, an initial probability value p(t0) the emergence of endemic goiter at the current age of a person according to the corresponding formula. Using an iterative procedure, individual risk R is predicted for the development of endemic goiter with a time step of 1 day. For this use the prognostic indicators of TSH, antibodies to TG, antibodies to TPO, malonic dialdehyde (MDA), antioxidant activity (AOA) and glutathione peroxidase (GLPO) and compare their level with the physiological norm. Determine the increase in the probability of deviation from the physiological norm of these indicators by mathematical formulas. Establish for each indicator the total probability p+i (t) exceeding it over the norm according to the claimed formulas. Calculate the overall probability of endemic goiter p(t+K) according to the claimed formula. Individual risk R of the development of endemic goiter for different lengths of life is determined by the appropriate formula. At R less than 0.05, the risk is predicted to be negligible. At a value of 0.05–0.35 – as a moderate. At a value of 0.35–0.6 – as high. At a value of more than 0.6 – as very high.;EFFECT: method allows to demonstratively and informatively predict the individual risk of endemic goiter in a person for different life spans by assessing the complex of the most significant indicators.;1 cl, 2 dwg, 8 tbl, 1 ex
机译:技术领域本发明涉及医学和生态学。测定人类生物质中碘,锌,镍,锰,铬和铅的含量。定义诊断实验室指标:无甲状腺素(无T 4 );促甲状腺激素(TSH);甲状腺球蛋白抗体(TG抗体);甲状腺过氧化物酶抗体(TPO抗体)。定义甲状腺超声的标志物指标:甲状腺的体积,其结构和血流量,并将这些值与生理指标进行比较。根据要求的数学公式找出违反F i 的函数。根据相应的公式,使用适当的加权因子i i ,初始概率值p(t 0 )在一个人的当前年龄出现地方性甲状腺肿。使用迭代程序,以1天的时间步长预测地方性甲状腺肿发展的个体风险R。为此,使用TSH的预后指标,TG抗体,TPO抗体,丙二醛(MDA),抗氧化活性(AOA)和谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GLPO),并将其水平与生理指标进行比较。通过数学公式确定偏离这些指标的生理指标的可能性的增加。根据要求的公式,为每个指标确定超出标准的总概率p + i (t)。根据要求的公式计算地方性甲状腺肿的总体概率p(t + K)。通过适当的公式确定不同寿命期间地方性甲状腺肿发展的个体风险R。如果R小于0.05,则该风险可忽略不计。介于0.05-0.35之间-中等。值在0.35–0.6之间–很高。值大于0.6 –非常高。;效果:该方法可以通过评估最重要的指标的复杂性,来说明性地和信息性地预测一个人在不同寿命中的地方性甲状腺肿的风险。 dwg,8汤匙,1前

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