COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR PERFORMING ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS AND BUILDING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR RARE EVENT OCCURRENCES IN PLANT-WIDE OPERATIONS

摘要

Computer-based methods and systems perform root cause analysis with the construction of a probabilistic graph model (PGM) that explains the, e.g., negative, event dynamics of a processing plant, demonstrates precursor profiles for real-time monitoring, and provides probabilistic prediction of plant event occurrence based on real-time data. The methods and systems establish causal relationships between processing events in the upstream and resulting events in the downstream sensor data. The methods and systems provide early warnings for online process monitoring in order to prevent undesired events. The methods and systems successfully combine historical time series data with PGM analysis for operational diagnosis and prevention in order to identify the root cause of one or more events in the midst of multitude of continuously occurring events.