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The impact of global oil price shocks on China's bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

机译:全球石油价格冲击对中国大宗商品市场和基础产业的影响

摘要

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China.
机译:本文研究了大宗商品市场对油价震荡的反应,并探讨了油价震荡对中国基本行业(金属,石化,谷物和油脂)的影响。我们将石油价格的波动性分为预期,意外和负面预期类别,以确定石油价格如何影响大宗商品市场。我们比较了不同时期之间以及分类指数之间的结果,以发现近年来的重大变化以及行业水平的差异。我们的结果表明,总体商品市场受到中国预期和意外油价波动的影响。自2007年以来,石油价格意外波动的影响变得更加复杂。与石化和油脂指数相比,金属和谷物指数并未对预期的石油价格波动做出显着反应。这些结果不仅有助于推动现有文献的发展,而且还应引起中国决策者和市场投资者的特别关注。

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