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Characteristic Function-Based Testing for Multifactor Continuous-Time Markov Models via Nonparametri

机译:基于参数的多因子连续时间马尔可夫模型基于特征的测试

摘要

We develop a nonparametric regression-based goodness-of-fit test for multifactor continuous-time Markov models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed-form or can be approximated accurately for many popular continuous-time Markov models in economics andfinance. An omnibus test procedure fully utilizes the information in the joint conditional distribution of the underlying processes and hence has power against a vast class of continuous-time alternatives in the multifactor framework. A class of easy-to-interpret diagnostic procedures is also proposed to gauge possible sources of model misspecifications. All our test statistics have a convenient asymptotic N(0; 1) distribution under correct model specification. Simulations show that our tests have reasonable size, thanks to the dimension reduction in nonparametric regression, and good power against a variety of alternatives, including misspecifications in the joint dynamics even if the dynamics of each individual component is correctly specified. This feature is not attainable by some existing tests. A parametric bootstrap improves the finite sample performance of proposed tests, but with higher computational costs.
机译:我们使用条件特征函数为多因素连续时间马尔可夫模型开发了基于非参数回归的拟合优度检验,该条件检验函数通常具有方便的封闭形式,或者对于经济学和金融学中许多流行的连续时间马尔可夫模型都可以精确地近似。综合测试过程充分利用了基础过程的联合条件分布中的信息,因此具有抵抗多因素框架中大量连续时间替代方案的能力。还提出了一类易于解释的诊断程序来评估模型规格不正确的可能来源。我们的所有测试统计量在正确的模型规格下均具有便利的渐近N(0; 1)分布。仿真表明,由于非参数回归的尺寸减小,并且即使对每个组件的动力学特性都正确指定,联合测试中的错误规范,我们的测试仍具有合理的尺寸,这要归功于其对各种替代方案的强大支持。一些现有测试无法实现此功能。参数自举可提高建议测试的有限样本性能,但具有更高的计算成本。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bin Chen; Yongmiao Hong;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2013
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 zh
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