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Characteristic Function-Based Testing for Multifactor Continuous-Time Markov Models via Nonparametric Regression

机译:通过非参数回归的多因子连续时间马尔可夫模型基于特征函数的检验

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摘要

We develop a nonparametric regression-based goodness-of-fit test for multifactor continuous-time Markov models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed form or can be approximated accurately for many popular continuous-time Markov models in economics and finance. An omnibus test fully utilizes the information in the joint conditional distribution of the underlying processes and hence has power against a vast class of continuous-time alternatives in the multifactor framework. A class of easy-to-interpret diagnostic procedures is also proposed to gauge possible sources of model misspecification. All the proposed test statistics have a convenient asymptotic N(0,1) distribution under correct model specification, and all asymptotic results allow for some data-dependent bandwidth. Simulations show that in finite samples, our tests have reasonable size, thanks to the dimension reduction in nonparametric regression, and good power against a variety of alternatives, including misspecifications in the joint dynamics, but the dynamics of each individual component is correctly specified. This feature is not attainable by some existing tests. A parametric bootstrap improves the finite-sample performance of proposed tests but with a higher computational cost.
机译:我们使用条件特征函数为多因素连续时间马尔可夫模型开发了基于非参数回归的拟合优度检验,该模型通常具有方便的封闭形式或可以被经济学和金融学中许多流行的连续时间马尔可夫模型精确地近似。综合测试充分利用了基础过程的联合条件分布中的信息,因此具有抵抗多因素框架中大量连续时间替代方案的能力。还提出了一类易于解释的诊断程序,以评估模型规格不正确的可能来源。在正确的模型规范下,所有建议的测试统计量均具有便利的渐近N(0,1)分布,并且所有渐近结果均允许某些与数据相关的带宽。仿真表明,在有限样本中,我们的测试具有合理的大小,这要归功于非参数回归中的尺寸减小,以及对各种替代方案(包括关节动力学中的错误指定)具有良好的抵抗力,但是正确地指定了每个单独组件的动力学。一些现有测试无法实现此功能。参数自举可提高建议测试的有限样本性能,但计算成本较高。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bin Chen; Yongmiao Hong;

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  • 年度 2013
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 zh
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