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New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

机译:旅游和酒店需求建模与预测的新发展

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摘要

AbstractPurposeThe purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.Design/Methodology/approachArticles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. FindingsThis review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting.Practical implicationsThis review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices.Originality/valueThe value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.
机译:摘要目的本研究旨在回顾2007-2015年间发表的有关旅游和酒店需求建模和预测的最新研究,以期确定正在研究的新兴主题和方法,并指出该领域的未来研究方向。设计/方法/方法确定并分析了在科学引文索引(SCI)和社会科学引文索引(SSCI)期刊上发表的旅游和酒店需求建模和预测。调查结果发现,针对酒店需求的研究相对于针对旅游需求的研究相对较少。还可以观察到,越来越多的研究已经脱离了对旅游总需求的分析,而分类市场和利基产品引起了越来越多的关注。一些研究已经超出新古典经济学理论的范围,以寻求对旅游业和酒店需求动态的更多解释,例如环境因素,游客在线行为和消费者信心指标等。非线性平滑过渡回归,混合频率建模技术和非参数奇异频谱分析等更先进的技术也已引入该研究领域。研究局限性/涵义该评论的主要局限性在于本研究中的文章仅涵盖了英语文献。将来的此类评论还应包括以其他语言发表的文章。该评论为对未来的旅游和酒店需求建模和预测研究感兴趣的研究人员提供了有用的指导。实践意义该评论为提高旅游和酒店管理实践的效率提供了重要的建议和建议。指出旅游和酒店需求建模和预测研究的当前趋势,并指出未来的研究方向。

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    Wu D.; Song H.; Shen S.;

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  • 年度 2017
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