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Peru’s Shining Path: Recent Dynamics and Future Prospects

机译:秘鲁的光辉道路:近期动态和未来前景

摘要

Although soundly defeated in the early to mid-1990s, Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) did not disappear. Over the past five years, it has reemerged in a substantially different form, with both a military and a political component. The organization, once again coordinated by jailed leader Abimael Guzmán Reynoso, has eschewed shorter-term military objectives in favor of a longer-term strategy of slowly rebuilding popular support and establishing a party within the Peruvian political system. In so doing, it has also moved from extreme Maoist ideological rigidity to a more pragmatic, though perhaps only tactical, approach. Financial support is derived once again from cocaine production and trafficking in the Upper Huallaga Valley (UHV). Although there may be some individual exceptions, Shining Path is not a narcoterrorist organization. At the same time, Sendero is still very small, in no way a threat to the Peruvian state, and divided. The Lima-based political organization and the military wing in the UHV continue to follow Guzmán‟s leadership, while the Apurímac-Ene Valleys (VRAE) group remains committed to the armed struggle. The Government of Peru (GOP) response to date, both military and civilian, has been inadequate. VRAE military operations are hampered by poor leadership, ill-trained troops, and an outdated strategy. VRAE development resources have been cut, and the long-promised paved road remains in the planning stage. Without significant GOP adjustments, Shining Path is likely to continue to grow.
机译:尽管在1990年代初至中期被击败,但《光辉道路》(Sendero Luminoso)并没有消失。在过去的五年中,它以一种完全不同的形式重新出现,包括军事和政治组成部分。该组织再次由被监禁的领导人阿比马埃尔·古兹曼·雷诺索(AbimaelGuzmánReynoso)协调,放弃了短期军事目标,而采取了长期战略,即逐步重建民众支持并在秘鲁政治体系内建立政党。这样一来,它也从极端的毛泽东思想僵化转变为更务实的(虽然可能只是战术上的)方法。上瓦拉加河谷(UHV)的可卡因生产和贩运再次提供了财政支持。尽管可能会有一些个别的例外,但“光辉之路”并不是一个恐怖组织。同时,森德罗(Sendero)仍然很小,丝毫不会威胁秘鲁国家,而且分裂了。设在利马的政治组织和特高压中的军事部门继续效仿古兹曼的领导,而阿普里马克-伊恩河谷(VRAE)小​​组仍致力于武装斗争。迄今为止,秘鲁政府在军事和民政方面的反应都不充分。 VRAE的军事行动受到领导不力,训练有素的部队以及过时的战略的阻碍。 VRAE开发资源已被削减,长期承诺的铺路仍处于计划阶段。如果没有重大的GOP调整,“光辉之路”可能会继续增长。

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