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Oil price effect on Nordic equity market indices

机译:油价对北欧股市指数的影响

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摘要

This paper empirically investigates the oil price predictability effect documented by Fan and Jahan-Parvar (2012) in the Nordic stock markets at industry-level returns. Using the percentage changes in oil spot prices as a predictor we find that oil price predictability is evident in a relatively small part of the studied industries. The effect was foremost apparent in those industries not directly impacted by oil or impacted with a second order effect. We also examine the contemporaneous effect between oil price changes and equity indices, specifically the Oil and Gas industry across the four Nordic countries are analyzed. The link between the oil price and Oil and Gas industry is apparent in all the Nordic countries. Regarding the rest of the studied industries the result is mixed. We also introduced an interaction term to control for historical oil shocks in the model in order to distinguish between the oil effect under normal price movements and those movements originating from oil shocks. With the introduction of oil shocks in the model the significance of mainly service oriented industries are reduced or removed.
机译:本文通过实证研究了Fan和Jahan-Parvar(2012)在北欧股票市场上获得行业水平回报的油价可预测性效应。使用石油现货价格的百分比变化作为预测因子,我们发现在相对较小的研究行业中,石油价格的可预测性是显而易见的。在那些不受石油直接影响或受到二阶影响的行业中,影响最为明显。我们还研究了石油价格变化和股票指数之间的同期影响,特别是分析了北欧四个国家的石油和天然气行业。石油价格与石油和天然气行业之间的联系在所有北欧国家中都很明显。对于其余的研究行业,结果好坏参半。我们还引入了一个交互项来控制模型中的历史石油冲击,以便区分正常价格走势下的石油效应和源于石油冲击的那些石油效应。通过在模型中引入石油冲击,减少或消除了主要面向服务行业的重要性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hedberg Linus; Wedefelt Carl;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2016
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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