An integrated methodology for quantitative assessment of proliferation resistance of advanced nuclear systems using probabilistic methods

摘要

Proliferation is the results of a competition between the proliferating country (proliferation) and the party to resist the proliferation efforts (safeguarder). An integrated evaluation methodology to evaluate proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems is outlined and demonstrated focusing upon the proliferation competition. The methodology consists of four steps: actor characterization, proliferation competition model development, model input evaluation, and pathway assessment. A success tree method is used to structure the proliferation. The method permits integration of all aspects of proliferation resistance of a nuclear energy system, both intrinsic and extrinsic, in evaluating an integrated proliferation probability measure. Most of the input data obtained in a subjective form are viewed as the current state of knowledge of an evaluator for a system, reflecting an evaluator's beliefs. A modular pebble bed reactor (MPBR) design was chosen as the reference system for demonstration of the methodology. The demonstration study follows the integrated evaluation methodology, and gives a particular assessment of the proliferation resistance associated with a proliferating host State focusing upon the diversion from the spent fuel storage of a MPBR plant.