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Modeling uncertainty in the New York City no. 7 subway line extension project using Decision Aids for Tunneling (DAT)

机译:建模纽约市的不确定性没有。使用决策辅助工具(DaT)的7条地铁线路延伸项目

摘要

Given the frequent cost overruns and schedule delays associated with underground construction projects, it is imperative that a detailed estimate of both be developed and considered prior to starting construction. The Decision Aids for Tunnelling (DAT) allow engineers to consider the uncertainties associated with project ground conditions, construction activities, and problem events, and to determine distributions of total cost and time for completion of construction. This is done by simulating the geological conditions in each DAT simulation and then using the resulting conditions in further simulations of construction processes. As each simulation will only produce one resulting point with a value for cost and a value for time, numerous simulations must be run by the DAT in order to produce a complete scatter gram with a distribution of total possible costs and duration. This thesis utilizes the DAT to develop a distribution for the total cost and duration of constructing the New York City Number 7 Subway Line Extension Project's Running Tunnels using a tunnel boring machine. The results will show the applicability of the DAT, given pre-construction geologic information and post-construction TBM progress data but only total cost. As is to be expected, subsurface conditions were limited to pre-construction baseline information. Despite these limitations, use of available data by the DAT generated a scattergram, forecasting a range of possible cost and duration outcomes.
机译:鉴于与地下建筑项目相关的经常性成本超支和进度延迟,当务之急是在开始建设之前就制定并考虑详细的估算。隧道决策辅助(DAT)使工程师可以考虑与项目地面条件,施工活动和问题事件相关的不确定性,并确定总成本和完成施工时间的分配。这是通过在每次DAT模拟中模拟地质条件,然后在生成过程的进一步模拟中使用所得条件来完成的。由于每个模拟只会产生一个具有成本价值和时间价值的结果点,因此DAT必须运行大量模拟才能产生具有总可能成本和持续时间分布的完整散点图。本文利用DAT来开发使用隧道掘进机建造纽约市7号地铁延伸线运行隧道的总成本和持续时间的分布。如果给出施工前的地质信息和施工后的TBM进度数据,结果将显示DAT的适用性,但仅显示总成本。可以预料,地下条件仅限于施工前的基线信息。尽管存在这些限制,但DAT对可用数据的使用产生了一个散点图,从而预测了一系列可能的成本和工期结果。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hung Vinnie;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2012
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类

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