Dynamic process simulation for the design of complex large-scale systems with respect to the performance of multiple interdependent production processes

摘要

This research developed a methodology to assess the design of complex large-scale products with respect to the performance of their production processes. In complex large-scale projects, physical and functional relationships among the product systems and components, along with concurrency and co-location of their production processes, generate inter-system process dependencies that drive the relative production rates among the systems. The methodology links the complexity of the product to the complexity of the production process at the level of detail of the single component and task to model the impacts of inter-system process dependencies on production performance. This detailed focus makes the methodology highly responsive to changes in design and technology and able to capture primary, secondary and tertiary impacts of change on production performance. Based on the methodology, a dynamic process simulation model has been developed to systematically assess different combinations of design and technology alternatives across multiple dimensions of production performance. Performance measures include project duration, costs, resource utilization and index of workers' exposure to dangerous conditions. Simulated scenario testing based on actual data from a construction project, the renovation of Baker House (MIT building W7), demonstrates that 1) inter-system process dependencies strongly influence production performance, 2) these links build their dynamic effects on production performance at the detailed task and component level, and 3) the nature of the links and their spatial and temporal location vary as changes are introduced in the design and in the production specifications. One important consequence is that the specification and optimization of the production processes for product systems and components as separate from one another leads to solutions that may be sub-optimal for the performance of the whole project. In addition, the specification and the representation of complex production processes at the aggregate level fails to capture important impacts of design and technology changes and, thus, leads to inconsistent duration and cost estimates.