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Uncertainty analysis in a shipboard integrated power system using multi-element polynomial chaos

机译:基于多元多项式混沌的舰载综合电力系统不确定性分析

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摘要

The integrated power system has become increasingly important in electric ships due to the integrated capability of high-power equipment, for example, electromagnetic rail guns, advance radar system, etc. Several parameters of the shipboard power system are uncertain, caused by a measurement difficulty, a temperature dependency, and random fluctuation of its environment. To date, there has been little if any studies which account for these stochastic effects in the large and complex shipboard power system from either an analytical or a numerical perspective. Furthermore, all insensitive parameters must be identified so that the stochastic analysis with the reduced dimensional parameters can accelerate the process. Therefore, this thesis is focused on two main issues - stochastic and sensitivity analysis - on the shipboard power system. The stochastic analysis of the large and complex nonlinear systems with the non-Gaussian random variables or processes, in their initial states or parameters, are prohibited analytically and very time consuming using the brute force Monte Carlo method. As a result, numerical stochastic solutions of these systems can be efficiently solved by the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) and Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM).
机译:由于电磁轨道炮,先进雷达系统等大功率设备的综合能力,综合动力系统在电动船中变得越来越重要。由于测量困难,舰船动力系统的一些参数不确定,温度依赖性以及其环境的随机波动。迄今为止,从分析或数值的角度来看,很少有研究能够解释大型复杂舰船动力系统中的这些随机效应。此外,必须识别所有不敏感的参数,以使尺寸参数减少的随机分析可以加快该过程。因此,本文主要研究舰船动力系统的两个主要问题-随机性和敏感性分析。禁止使用蛮力蒙特卡洛方法对具有初始状态或参数的非高斯随机变量或过程的大型复杂非线性系统进行随机分析,这非常耗时。结果,可以通过广义多项式混沌(gPC)和概率配置法(PCM)有效地解决这些系统的数值随机解。

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