Development of Pathways to Achieve the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective: Global and Regional Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvements

摘要

This study examines the three objectives of the UN Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative:1. Ensure universal access to modern energy services by 2030.2. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (from 1.3% to 2.6% annual reduction in energyintensity of GDP) by 2030.3. Double the share of renewable energy in global final energy from 18% to 36% by 2030.The integrated assessment model, ETSAP-TIAM, was used in this study to compare, from an economic optimization point of view, different scenarios for the development of the energy system between 2010 and 2030. This analysis is conducted on a global and regional scale. The scenarios were constructed to analyze the effect of achieving the SE4ALL energy efficiency objective, the SE4ALL renewable energy objective, both together, and all three SE4ALL objectives. Synergies exist between renewable energy and energy efficiency. When the SE4ALL renewable energy objective is achieved, the economically optimal solution produced by ETSAP-TIAM also includes a reduction in energy intensity: globally, the compound annual reduction in energy intensity of GDP is 1.8% when the renewable energy objective is achieved. Likewise, a scenario that achieves the SE4ALL energy efficiency objective results in a solution that is halfway to the SE4ALL renewable energy objective: the 2030 global renewable energy share of total final energy is 26%. On a global scale, the renewable shares in every sector increase when the SE4ALL energy efficiency objective is achieved. The results from ETSAP-TIAM suggest that the SE4ALL energy access objective is not as synergetic with the other two objectives. When traditional biomass is phased out, the results show that it is more cost-effective to replace it with non-renewable energy sources for residential heating, cooking, and hot water.