Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?

摘要

The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basinshows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of thenumber of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show thesame obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, giventhat the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the basin hurricanes. Weinvestigate whether it really should be considered surprising or whether thereis a simple statistical explanation for the disappearance of this change-pointat landfall.