Large-scale water quality issues have recently become the focus of policy and research. To gain insight into large-scale water quality issues, a scenario analysis was carried out for Europe using the continental water quality model WorldQual with total nitrogen and phosphorus as example pollutants. Future nitrogen and phosphorus loadings and instream concentrations were simulated for an “economy first” scenario and compared to contemporary conditions. Results indicate that future total nitrogen (TN) loadings are likely to decrease in most parts of central Europe by 5 to 25 kg ha-1 year-1 due to land-use change in the form of reduced cropland area as a result of technological changes, as well as improvements in land-use management based on higher efficiencies of application rates. Climate change has less impact on TN loadings, but an increase of future in-stream concentrations is accompanied by reduced river discharge. Future total phosphorus (TP) loadings are similar to contemporary loadings for all of Europe. In-stream TP concentrations do not change in northern and eastern Europe. In central Europe, concentrations increase little (by one class). In a few regions,such as northern Spain, very high changes (up to more than three classes) are apparent as a result of reduced river discharge.
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机译:最近,大规模的水质问题已成为政策和研究的重点。为了深入了解大规模水质问题,使用大陆水质模型WorldQual对欧洲进行了情景分析,其中总氮和磷为污染物。在“经济至上”的情况下,模拟了未来氮和磷的负载量和河道内浓度,并将其与现代条件进行了比较。结果表明,由于技术变化,土地利用方式以减少耕地的形式发生变化,因此未来中欧大部分地区的总氮(TN)含量可能会减少5至25 kg ha-1 year-1 ,以及基于更高的施用率效率来改善土地使用管理。气候变化对总氮含量的影响较小,但未来河川径流浓度的增加将伴随着河流流量的减少。未来整个欧洲的总磷(TP)装载量与现代装载量相似。北欧和东欧的流中TP浓度不变。在中欧,浓度增加很少(增加一类)。在一些地区,例如西班牙北部,由于河流流量的减少,变化非常明显(多达三类以上)。
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