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Paleoclimate modeling: an integrated component of climate change science

机译:古气候模拟:气候变化科学的综合组成部分

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摘要

Past climates provide an opportunity to examine the working of the Earth system under a much wider range of forcing than those experienced during the historical period. The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is an ongoing program tasked with the systematic comparison of models and observations of past climate. Over the last 20 years, through the definition of model experimental designs and the syntheses of paleoenvironmental data, PMIP has made significant progress in the understanding of a number of key periods of the past. Previous PMIP experiments have included the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For the latest iteration, PMIP3, the last millennium (LM), the Eemian (last interglaciation) and the mid-Pliocene warm period (approximately three million years ago) have been added. Three of these PMIP3 experiments (MH, LGM, LM) have been included as high-priority simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012), which provides the framework for coordinated climate change experiments used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5).
机译:与历史时期相比,过去的气候提供了一个在更大的强迫范围内检查地球系统运行的机会。古气候模拟比对项目(PMIP)是一个正在进行的计划,其任务是对过去气候的模型和观测结果进行系统比较。在过去的20年中,通过模型实验设计的定义和古环境数据的综合,PMIP在理解过去的多个关键时期取得了重大进展。先前的PMIP实验包括全新世中期(MH)和最高冰川期(LGM)。对于最新的迭代,已添加了PMIP3,最近的千年(LM),Eemian(最后的冰川间期)和上新世中期的暖期(大约三百万年前)。这些PMIP3实验中的三个(MH,LGM,LM)已作为高优先级模拟包括在耦合模型比较项目(CMIP5; Taylor等人,2012)中,该项目为政府间专家组使用的气候变化协调实验提供了框架关于气候变化第五次评估报告(IPCC AR5)。

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