Early detection of tick-borne encephalitis virus spatial distributionudand activity in the province of Trento, northern Italy

摘要

New human cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) have recently been recorded outside the recognised foci ofudthis disease, i.e. in the province of Trento in northern Italy. In order to predict the highest risk areas for increased TBEudvirus activity, we have combined cross-sectional serological data, obtained from 459 domestic goats, with analysis ofudthe autumnal cooling rate based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperatureud(LST) data. A significant relationship between finding antibodies against the virus in serum (seroprevalence) inudgoats and the autumnal cooling rate was detected, indicating that the transmission intensity of the virus does not onlyudvary spatially, but also in relation to climatic factors. Virus seroprevalence in goats was correlated with the occurrenceudof TBE in humans and also with the average number of forestry workers’ tick bites, demonstrating that serologicaludscreening of domestic animals, combined with an analysis of the autumnal cooling rate, can be used as early-warningudpredictors of TBE risk in humans.