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Strategic thinking: Experimental investigation and economic theory.

机译:战略思考:实验调查和经济理论。

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摘要

Strategic interaction has traditionally been modelled in economics with game theoretic equilibrium models. In these models, strategies constitute best responses to beliefs that are consistent with other players' strategies. While this consistency is realistic in settings familiar to the players, it is less appropriate in situations that are encountered for the first time. This shortcoming has led to the conception of models of bounded rationality, in particular the level-k model of levels of reasoning. While experimental studies usually employ only action data to test the level-k model, in this thesis, a team setup with electronic communication between participants allows for a qualitatively richer insight in actual reasoning processes. Two different games are played to investigate different notions of strategic thinking. The first study uses a dominance-solvable 'beauty contest' game in which 6-8 teams compete for a prize. This game lends itself naturally to the observation of levels of reasoning. In addition, the communication allows to analyse the anchoring level-0 belief and the population belief of individual players. The second study uses a zero-sum 'hide and seek' game that two teams play against each other. Both the influence of non-neutral framing on the level-0 belief and the task-dependence of the level of reasoning can be brought to light in this study. The third and final chapter considers an application of the equilibrium concept in the theory of implicit incentives, a situation of complex strategic interaction. The method and results of the study are viewed against the background of the limitations of equilibrium models to reflect a situation of inherent one-shot nature.
机译:传统上,战略互动是用博弈论均衡模型在经济学中建模的。在这些模型中,策略是对与其他参与者的策略一致的信念的最佳反应。虽然这种一致性在玩家熟悉的设置中是现实的,但在第一次遇到的情况下不太合适。这种缺陷导致了有限理性模型的概念,特别是推理水平的k级模型。尽管实验研究通常仅使用动作数据来测试k级模型,但在本文中,参与者之间通过电子通信建立的团队可以在实际推理过程中获得质上更丰富的见解。玩两个不同的游戏来研究战略思维的不同概念。第一项研究使用可解决优势的“美女竞赛”游戏,其中有6至8个团队争夺奖金。该游戏自然很适合观察推理水平。另外,该通信允许分析单个玩家的锚定0级信念和总体信念。第二项研究使用两队互相对抗的零和“捉迷藏”游戏。这项研究既可以揭示非中立框架对0级信念的影响,也可以揭示推理水平的任务依赖性。第三章也是最后一章考虑了均衡概念在隐性激励理论中的应用,即复杂的战略互动情况。在平衡模型的局限性背景下查看研究方法和结果,以反映固有的一发性情况。

著录项

  • 作者

    Penczynski Stefan Peter;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2009
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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